Monday, May 16, 2011

Muskegon county apportionment from a republican's view

Interesting that the final determining vote was from republican party chairwoman Christina Achterhoff.
Christina's public comment about the 11 district plan “I just feel if this is accepted that I think there will be zero Republicans on the board come 2012,”, was printed in The Chronicle.

Let's see how republicans fared:
This is the 11 commissioner plan that was voted down.
Markel/Waters YES. Tony T/Tony M/Christina Achterhoff NO
This option is similar to the current districts.
Jager's district essentially intact.
Engle's district essentially intact.
Snider's district essentially intact
Scolnik's district split but the addition of RP shouldn't keep the new district 8 from staying republican.
And the new district 9, "East NS is a potential win for republicans if they attracted a candidate.
Mahoney's very close district 1 remains a possible win.

Possible net republican wins 6/11 54%
Most likely outcome in 2012: 4/11 36%
Current districts:

District w/Commissioner Name
1 Kenneth Mahoney
2 Alan Jager
3 I. John Snider II
4 James J. Derezinski
5 Marvin R. Engle
6 Lew Collins
7 Scott Plummer
8 Anthony T. Longmire
9 Rillastine R. Wilkins
10 Benjamin E. Cross
11 Robert Scolnik

This is the 9 district plan that was adopted:
Tony T/Tony M/Christina Achterhoff YES  Steve Markel/Nancy Waters NO
Jager has a tough task in beating Derezinski (yes, Jim has told me he will run again) in Eggleston and he has no name recognition (yet!) in Mooreland/Casnovia. But Derezinski hasn't run a contested election in a long time and Jager's middle name is "giant slayer". Toss up.
Engle's district should stay with Marve. Lou Collins looks like he'll be out.
Snider's not running and the new, expanded (GOP leaning) district will depend on who runs.
Scolnik's district should be safe for a republican.
Mahoney's district adds Blue Lake and Dalton. Both townships voted solidly GOP in 2010. This one stays with the chairman unless a newcomer realizes the opportunity here.

Net possible republican wins: 5/9 55%
Most likely outcome in 2012: 3/9 33%

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